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1. Military integration: This is almost complete. Russia plans to permanently station its troops in Belarus, including the air force, new ground brigades, and possibly strategic units – also in the nuclear sector.

2. Economic integration: Russia and Belarus are aiming to create joint markets for gas, electricity, and labor in order to unite their economic systems.

3. Political integration: The Kremlin could create a common court and parliament as well as a permanent committee of the “union” of both countries – with extensive legislative powers.

Threat to NATO

Particularly alarming is the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, which borders the NATO countries Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. In 2023, Russia stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus after it forced the country to make constitutional changes that lifted its status as a non-nuclear state. The researchers warn that these developments significantly endanger Europe's security. NATO must prepare for a future in which Belarus no longer acts as an independent state, but as an extended arm of Russia – with potentially devastating consequences for regional stability.